Research & Analysis

How Nuclear Talks with the DPRK Could Resume
By Jee Lee on September 17, 2020

South Korea’s chief negotiator at the Six Party Talks, Amb. Chun Yung-woo, has joined ONN’s Engagement Network. In this two part series, he sits down with Jee Lee to discuss approaches to engage North Korea and reminisces about what he’s learned in previous negotiations.


By Jee Lee on September 9, 2020

South Korea’s chief negotiator at the Six Party Talks, Amb. Chun Yung-woo, has joined ONN’s Engagement Network. In this two part series, he sits down with Jee Lee to discuss approaches to engage North Korea and reminisces about what he’s learned in previous negotiations.


By Clayton Besaw on August 7, 2020

Building off of Datayo’s topic modeling toolkit, we break down North Korea’s official English news media by sentiment. First we explore how sentiment patterns manifest within the entire English language news corpus from 1996 to 2020. Then we look at how sentiment patterns manifest within a set of articles related to our previously identified nuclear weapons topic. 


electoral forecasting
By Matthew Frank on July 26, 2020

This report introduces a new forecasting tool that uses structural data in order to make predictions of the outcome of elections on a global scale, complementing most existing election forecasting tools which are country-specific.


By Xu Tianran on June 29, 2020

This article tries to give a general idea of the technological level of North Korean nuclear weapon’s miniaturization in a bid to better understand the nuclear threat North Korea poses to the region and the globe. Through examining limited open-source materials the author tries to establish a rough estimate on the size and weight of North Korea’s nuclear bombs. 


Leafleting in North Korea
By Jee Abbey Lee on June 25, 2020

Marking the 70th anniversary of the Korean War, this report explains the practice of leafleting -- focusing on why it is such a big point of contention for North Korea. Private leaflets coming from the South Korea side of the border are seen as a demoralising insult for Pyongyang. When the North Korean public is exposed to detailed or even inflated information about the Kim family, it may lead to questioning the nature of its leadership -- a de facto theocracy.


Global Fragility Act - Report
By Conor Seyle, Elizabeth Hume, Jessica Baumgardner-Zuzik, Eric Keels, Dianna E. Almanza on June 1, 2020

In late 2019, the US government passed the Global Fragility Act as part of the consolidated budget appropriations act.  The Global Fragility Act is a major attempt to redesign how the United States approaches fragility and stabilization work, with an emphasis on improving the coordination between the US State Department, USAID, and the Department of Defense.


Ethics in open source imagery analysis
By Melissa Hanham, Jaewoo Shin on May 21, 2020

The increased availability and lower cost of satellite imagery has made it accessible to civil society in recent years. While universities, think tanks, and nongovernmental organizations are racing ahead to incorporate this form of open-source intelligence (OSINT) into their regular research work, there are a number of unexamined areas that our team at the Open Nuclear Network (ONN) wanted to explore. Are open-source analysts facing ethical dilemmas? If they are, how are they resolved? What resources exist to support them to make such decisions?


Russian Presidential Speeches
By Clayton Besaw on May 21, 2020

This analysis utilizes a machine learning methodology known as topic modeling to identify and uncover thematic trends in Russian presidential speech data from 1999 to 2020.


By Tianran Xu, Jaewoo Shin on April 24, 2020

Since May 2019, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has repeatedly tested two new solid-fuel short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). Unlike liquid SRBMs such as the SCUD-B/C, the KN-23 and KN-24 missile systems have different designs, means of transportation, and launch methods. However, they have largely overlapping performance and utility. In theory, the longer range KN-23, which appeared earlier than KN-24, should have eliminated the need for the latter.


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