Research & Analysis

By Melissa Hanham on November 15, 2019

While there is insufficient evidence to prove that North Korea is pursuing countermeasures or penetration aids (penaids), the lack of evidence certainly does not prove that they are not. The technology behind producing penaids — or still more dangerous — multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) is difficult, but not more difficult than what North Korea has already accomplished.


North Korea's Approach to Countering Ballistic Missile Defence
By Melissa Hanham on November 15, 2019

This article provides an overview of North Korea’s approach towards countering US and allied ballistic missile defence. It explains the integral role the two tested Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15, play for North Korea’s capability for delivering a nuclear weapon to the US mainland, as well as how ballistic missile defense is set up to detect and intercept incoming threats.


North Korea's Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles & Countermeasures
By Melissa Hanham on November 14, 2019

This article provides an overview of how states with intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities have considered countermeasures to ballistic missile defence (BMD) systems. Generally, states counter ballistic missile defence  by increasing the number of missiles they produce, developing countermeasures and penetration aides such as decoys or chaff — which confuse BMD sensors, or increasing the number of warheads in each missile’s payload.


women and nonviolent campaigns policy brief
By Sahana Dharmapuri, Conor Seyle on September 30, 2019

This research examines the effects of women’s representation in resistance movements on their choice of strategies and movement effectiveness.  The Women in Resistance (WiRe) data set is the first attempt to assess resistance movements on the degree to which they incorporate women into their political goals, their memberships, and their leadership.  It includes data on 338 resistance movements committed to the overthrow of a government or territorial self-determination from 1945-2014.


 Women’s Participation and Nonviolent Campaigns
By Erica Chenoweth on September 30, 2019

This research examines the effects of women’s representation in resistance movements on their choice of strategies and movement effectiveness.  The Women in Resistance (WiRe) data set is the first attempt to assess resistance movements on the degree to which they incorporate women into their political goals, their memberships, and their leadership.  It includes data on 338 resistance movements committed to the overthrow of a government or territorial self-determination from 1945-2014.  This report provides an overview of the WiRe data set and assesses how women’s engagement i


Risky Business: Assessing the Success of Investments in Somalia
By Eric Keels on August 1, 2019

Drawing on data from One Earth Future’s Shuraako program, this report assesses the relationship between direct funding, proximity to violence, and proximity to international funding on the income of businesses in Somalia. 


social media fragile states
By Victor Odundo Owuor, Dianna E. Almanza on July 1, 2019

The growing discomfort with how large social media platforms can be a tool for fueling real-world violence and empowering autocratic behavior often masks an equally important narrative: social media can be a source of good, especially in fragile states. This fact sheet - a continuation of the OEFR series on disruptive technologies and fragile states - brings to light how social media is being used for stabilizing efforts in these environments.


2019 Report on Risk of Coup
By Jay Benson, Matthew Frank, Clayton Besaw, Jonathan Powell, Eric Keels on April 26, 2019

The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold. First, it provides an in-depth global and regional look at the likelihood of coup events for 2019 based on a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis of specific coup-prone states. Examining historical trends, it provides analyses on the risk of coup events and the geographic hotspots for the coming year. This information is further broken down regionally by examining Asia, the Americas, and Africa individually.


Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics
By Jay Benson, Joshua Lambert, Eric Keels on March 15, 2019

Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability. Breaking from past studies, our report examines recent trends in civil war dynamics. Leveraging publicly available dataset, this report provides a comprehensive look at how rebel group strategies have shifted in the 21st century. Findings include detailed analyses on recent trends in rebel group structure, the location of armed violence, as well as rebel tactics.


A Story of Peace and Reconciliation in Colombia
By Alexandra Amling, Timothy Schommer, Illustrator: Chloé Dolic on March 6, 2019

Peace is Ours is the story of a young couple, Ximena and Jair, who attempt to build their lives in the shadow of the Colombian peace process in 2016. As they struggle to find their way in society, they are haunted by memories of family tragedy, their role as guerilla fighters during the conflict, and the difficulty of establishing a sense of normalcy within a deeply divided Colombia.


Pages