Research & Analysis

2019 Report on Risk of Coup
By Jay Benson, Matthew Frank, Clayton Besaw, Jonathan Powell, Eric Keels on April 26, 2019

The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold. First, it provides an in-depth global and regional look at the likelihood of coup events for 2019 based on a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis of specific coup-prone states. Examining historical trends, it provides analyses on the risk of coup events and the geographic hotspots for the coming year. This information is further broken down regionally by examining Asia, the Americas, and Africa individually.


Recent Trends in Civil War Dynamics
By Jay Benson, Joshua Lambert, Eric Keels on March 15, 2019

Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability. Breaking from past studies, our report examines recent trends in civil war dynamics. Leveraging publicly available dataset, this report provides a comprehensive look at how rebel group strategies have shifted in the 21st century. Findings include detailed analyses on recent trends in rebel group structure, the location of armed violence, as well as rebel tactics.


A Story of Peace and Reconciliation in Colombia
By Alexandra Amling, Timothy Schommer, Illustrator: Chloé Dolic on March 6, 2019

Peace is Ours is the story of a young couple, Ximena and Jair, who attempt to build their lives in the shadow of the Colombian peace process in 2016. As they struggle to find their way in society, they are haunted by memories of family tragedy, their role as guerilla fighters during the conflict, and the difficulty of establishing a sense of normalcy within a deeply divided Colombia.


gender and reintegration in colombia
By Alexandra Amling on March 5, 2019

Gender perspectives are understood as the differences in needs and challenges of men, women, boys, and girls which are based on the social construction of gender roles and norms. In DDR processes as well as in relation to other aspects of the implementation of peace agreements, these differences are often missing or not properly identified, resulting in women and girls not being able to access services and benefits.


Implications of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Fragile States
By Sierra Method, Victor Odundo Owuor on February 22, 2019

The fact-sheet is a continuation of the OEFR Business & Governance project’s series on disruptive technologies and fragile states. The global market for unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) or “drones” has grown rapidly in last few years. Though still a relatively novel technology around the world, there is a growing concern of unmonitored UAV use in fragile states.


diaspora investment fragile states
By Jay Benson, Victor Odundo Owuor on February 11, 2019

Fragile and conflict impacted states often suffer from a severe lack of investment capital for private sector development. Diaspora investors have the potential to play a critical role as frontier investors, providing much needed capital for economic growth and development. This report explores a variety of investment mechanisms and public policies which might help facilitate this important form of investment.


Diaspora Investment in Fragile Economies Policy Brief
By Jay Benson, Victor Odundo Owuor on February 11, 2019

Fragile and conflict impacted states often suffer from a severe lack of investment capital for private sector development. Diaspora investors have the potential to play a critical role as frontier investors, providing much needed capital for economic growth and development. This report explores a variety of investment mechanisms and public policies which might help facilitate this important form of investment.


exploring the puzzle rebel terrorism
By Eric Keels on December 11, 2018

The decision by rebel groups to employ terrorism is influenced, in part, by the structure of rebel organizations as well as the strategic environment in which they operate. Rebel groups are more likely to use terrorism when they have close ties to vulnerable communities and are able to use media coverage of attacks to highlight their goals to their constituents. By understanding the strategic and organizational factors that lead to terrorism in war, conflict affected states and international stakeholders can take steps to reduce this form of violence. 


The Collapse of Mozambique’s 2013 Peace Agreement and Why it Matters
on July 19, 2018

This discussion paper analyzes the structural and causal factors that led to the collapse of Mozambique’s landmark 1992 General Peace Agreement in October 2013 and why they matter for the country’s future stability.


By Maisie Pigeon, Emina Sadic, Sean Duncan, Chuck Ridgway, Kelsey Soeth on May 23, 2018

The State of Maritime Piracy 2017 report includes analyses of the economic and human costs of piracy and armed robbery in the Western Indian Ocean Region, West Africa, Asia, and Latin American and the Caribbean.


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